Anticipating a Nuclear Iran: Challenges for U.S. Security

Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons has been a longstanding priority for U.S. administrations, but there is growing realization that Iranian nuclear capabilities may be inevitable. Davis and Pfaltzgraff, both of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, begin with the assumption that Iran will get the bomb in the near future, and sketch out likely scenarios that would inform American responses. They rely on three models: A “defensive Iran,” playing by similar rules as established nuclear states; an “aggressive Iran,” emboldened to take a proactive role in regional conflicts; and an “unstable Iran,” where authority over weapons of mass destruction becomes unclear. The authors warn that America’s “[l]ack of familiarity with Iran’s value structures or with the perspectives of key leaders presents a daunting problem,” and they explore a variety of frightening scenarios, including an Iranian military proliferating weapons to other countries. Employing dry, analytic language, the text encompasses so many unknowns that many passages could apply equally well to Pakistan or even North Korea. The policy recommendations, beginning with the truism that “[d]eterring a nuclear Iran will be challenging and difficult,” are, as a result, vague and formulaic. (Dec.)