Studies See Slow-to-Moderate Growth

The investment banking firm Veronis Suhler and the global accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers have released separate studies that project slow-to-moderate growth in consumer book spending.

The more bullish forecast is by Pricewaterhouse, projecting spending on trade books to increase 5.1% this year to $18 billion. Over the next five years, the study projects spending to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 4.5%, hitting $21.4 billion in 2005.

Veronis Suhler's more conservative outlook projects spending to increase 1.9% in 2001, to $18.1 billion. According to Veronis, spending on adult hardcovers will increase 1.1% this year, but spending on trade paperbacks is expected to decline by 1.3%. The children's paperback segment is expected to have the strongest growth this year, at 8.1%, while spending on children's hardcovers is expected to be up 1.9%. The spending forecast projects moderate gains of 5.0% and 4.6% for the university press and religion segments, respectively. Mass market paperback growth was pegged at 2.7%, with spending on book clubs estimated to increase 1.9%. Mail order spending is seen falling 5.9% in the year.

For the 2000 to 2005 period, the Veronis Suhler report projects spending on consumer books to increase at a 2.4% compound annual growth rate with spending reaching $20 billion. The spending gains are forecast to come mainly from price increases with a minimal increase in unit sales.