Weighing Oprah's Choice

It's good news for contemporary authors at every stage of their careers that Oprah's book club is now open to living writers and all genres, after focusing on classic lit for the past two and half years. But how much will the change affect publishers' and booksellers' bottom lines? (Hint: houses with annual revenues of less than $125 million still may not cash in.)

A look back at the 54 Oprah picks so far shows that the top seven trade houses have snagged the most selections, with smaller players Hyperion and Houghton Mifflin picking up one each. Her new plan to include nonfiction won't necessarily change that.

No publisher would speculate on the record about the reasons why Oprah favors the big houses. But several suggested it may be because books from those houses tend to be more visible in the stores where Oprah shops or because major houses have a greater ability to print and distribute her picks within the required two- to three-week turnaround. Still, most said they believed her choices are based more on her reaction to what's between a book's covers than to the colophon on the spine.

Given Oprah's plan to choose books "when the spirit moves her," according to a spokeswoman, it seems likely she will continue to make two to five selections a year. It remains to be seen if the format change can help her push sales of her picks over the million-copy mark as often as in the '90s. At the moment, her choice of James Frey's A Million Little Pieces, which was already a strong seller, looks like it could boost the addiction memoir into the seven-figure realm. In any case, few in the industry are willing to gainsay Oprah's knack for surprises. As Bill Tipper, bestsellers editor at barnesandnoble.com put it, "She's very innovative and has a genius for understanding what will speak to people."