Straight from the Buyers' Mouths

This story originally appeared in Children's Bookshelf on February 15, 2007 Sign up now!

by Diane Roback, Children's Bookshelf -- Publishers Weekly, 2/15/2007

In a program titled "What's Selling Now: The Scoop from the Marketplace," held last Saturday at the New York Hilton as part of the annual winter conference of the Society of Children's Book Writers and Illustrators, four children's buyers talked about current trends in the children's market, and how they approach their buying decisions.

The panel featured Ruta Drummond, children's book buyer, Borders Group, Inc.; Brian Monahan, buyer, children's books, Barnes & Noble; Mary Grey James, lead buyer, Ingram; and Robert Brown, co-owner, Books, Bytes & Beyond, Glen Rock, N.J.

Indie store owner Brown, whose store is celebrating its 20th anniversary this year, stated their primary mission: "to get children excited about reading and learning." What's selling these days? For Brown, picture books are still strong, and have been holding steady for several years. Hardcover sales in that category are triple the sales in paperback. Nonfiction sales "continue to rise," and there is emerging interest in the graphic novel format. On the other hand, he said, "The rapid growth trend for novels is leveling off, but there is still plenty of opportunity here." In this category, Brown said that unit sales are higher in paperback than in hardcover.

The market for middle-grade novels is larger than for older fiction, Brown reminded the audience, saying that the more mature content of YA books limits its readership, since there is a short window for teenage readers "between the YA novel and the progression into the adult arena."

When buying books for his store, Brown said they look for books of outstanding literary and artistic quality, and/or books that are "uniquely creative, highly entertaining or fill a market need." Categories he'd like to see more of: shorter novels (300 pages or less), especially books told with humor, and picture book series with a strong character geared toward boys.

Ingram: Buying It All

Mary Grey James, hired eight years ago as Ingram's children's book buyer, had previously been a sales rep and had had her own store, so she knows the industry from many perspectives. Unlike when she was buying for one store, though, at Ingram she says she buys "everything," adding, "It's just a question of how many copies of a title."

Many factors influence that decision: the author or illustrator's track record; the book's price point ("is it realistic for what the market will bear?"), the print run and publicity plans (both of which indicate the publisher's expectations). After that, she says, "It boils down to a gut feeling about a book. This is the fun part of my job. It's why buyers haven't been replaced by computers."

She commented on the rapidly changing market, saying, "In the last five years we have seen more changes than in the previous 25 years. Technology moves everything in a faster way." For instance, she said, when Johnny Depp does a pirate movie, the market gets flooded with pirate books. And though the Internet does compete for children's time, it does offer many advantages, such as allowing authors to create Web sites to connect to readers.

Graphic novels are a growing category, James said. "Librarians are very hot on [this format]—they are somewhat ahead of the bookstore market. Nonfiction graphic books are being used in educational circles, and I'm excited that they are being used with reluctant readers. Now we need a creative way to merchandise them."

Buying for Borders

Ruta Drummond has been with Borders for 22 years, and has seen it grow from two stores to 1,200. She told the audience that her style is to give the bad news first, and stated it right away: "There are too many picture books being published." Every month, she says, she sees 300–400 picture books, and buys only 50 out of that total. "That leaves a lot of picture books that don't see the light of day on Borders' shelves." In ordering, she says, "We are kept to a very strict budget. It's a big one, but it's very strict."

Pointing out that 60% of her sales are backlist, she further revealed that 80% of those sales come from only 300 titles. "That means there are a lot of picture books that don't go out very often." Her advice to aspiring authors: "Make it funny and make it short." Genres she's fairly sick of seeing include going-to-school and going-to-bed books.

What's hots these days? Drummond mentioned a few categories. "Media tie-ins. Pirates are huge, and fairies are a very big category. That has somewhat taken the place of princess books." Commenting on celebrity books (a topic that elicited some hisses from the audience), Drummond said that while there were still a lot of them, one positive development is that they have become more commonplace; these days, "it's just another celebrity book."

Middle-Grade Trends at B&N

The final panelist, Brian Monahan, children's book buyer at Barnes & Noble, said that while he buys in several categories, middle-grade fiction is one of his primary focuses. When sales reps come in to show him books, roughly five months before pub date, his job is to analyze the information provided "through the prism of Barnes & Noble customers." He uses such criteria as "is the story unique? does the cover make you want to pick that book up?"

He also looks at the price, deciding if it is price-appropriate for the market; at previous B&N sales for that author (if it's a first-time author, he looks at comp titles from a similar book or author); and at promotional opportunities. "All these factors dictate how many [copies] I'll buy," Monahan said. "We have a computer system that will model distribution into our stores."

Fantasy continues to sell very well, he said, commenting that it has been the hottest area in the middle-grade market for years—a market changed by Harry Potter. Harry has also broadened the market, he said, because of the length of those books, and has also increased the level of complexity that is possible. Another hot area: stories about school, in which kids are dealing with everyday issues at school or after school.

And books about fame and being a celebrity are extremely popular these days. "High School Musical and Hannah Montana give kids a chance to see what fame would be like," he said, "and they can project themselves on stage."

As far as new trends, Monahan pointed to shorter, finite story arcs, a la the Warriors series, where he said sales continue to grow, and the Spiderwick series, which launches a new arc later this year. He also mentioned the rise in graphic formats, "not just manga and graphic novels, but also Brian Selznick's new novel and the Geronimo Stilton series." And then there are media-driven books, such as movie tie-ins. Sometimes, he said, the tie-in books do "amazingly well, while the movie itself is not critically successful.