Book Sales Projected to Increase 4% in 2007

by Jim Milliot -- Publishers Weekly, 6/4/2007

Book sales are expected to increase a total of 4.1% in 2007, to $39.65 billion, according to projections from Book Industry Study Group released at BookExpo America over the weekend. The biggest gains are expected to come in the juvenile hardcover segment, which will receive a significant boost from the July release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, and in the elhi segment, where an increase in state adoption opportunities is expected to lead to a 7.3% sales increase.

The BISG estimated that total book sales rose 3.1% last year, to $38.08 billion. Trade sales, which include the adult, juvenile and mass market segments, rose 3.3%, to $14.47 billion. Unit trade sales in 2006 were up 0.4%, to 2.26 billion. Unit sales in the juvenile hardcover segment are projected to rise 6.5% this year, but the forecast calls for unit trade sales to increase by less than 1% annually over the next five years. Between 2005 and 2011, unit sales are projected to increase at a 0.5% compound annual rate, while sales are forecast to grow at a 2.8% annual rate.

According to projections for the entire industry, total sales will hit $45.2 billion in 2011, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 3.4%. The religious and elhi segments are expected to have the strongest gains through 2011, with an average growth rate of 4.9%.

For the second consecutive year, the BISG numbers include results from a survey of small presses with revenue below $50 million. The inclusion of the small press revenue is the primary reason sales from BISG and AAP have such a wide discrepancy. Last month, the AAP released its annual sales statistics, which showed sales fell 0.3%, to $24.20 billion. And while the AAP data showed that sales fell in the juvenile, book club, audio, religious and elhi segments, BISG showed declines in no segments in 2006. BISG didn't measure sales in book clubs, audio and e-books, and it rolls up audio and e-book figures in different print segments. Neither BISG nor AAP has attempted to break out overall sales of digital materials from book sales.