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Fall Traffic

by Michael Coffey -- Publishers Weekly, 6/29/2009

Last year's fall list, published into the teeth of a presidential election and a financial meltdown, hedged its bets—lots of nostalgia, no surefire blockbuster authors and light even on the literary. Not so this year. Dan Brown returns, and King and Grisham and Steel and Albom and Patterson and Sparks are right there, too. What might all this flash mean for booksellers and librarians who have to make wise choices as to what to stock and in what quantities? We asked around.

Stuart Applebaum, corporate spokesman for Random House, which has several big books coming, is both excited and wary about how the markets will respond. “It's an extraordinary fall for us, but in this economy nothing is assured. We have been working at it hard since late winter. A great list alone might have been fine back in the day, but in 2009 it just isn't enough.”

Booksellers are less measured in their enthusiasm. Karen Corvello, head buyer at RJ Julia in Madison, Conn., says, “The Dan Browns and Michael Crichtons will bring people in, and the range is so broad this season—Lethem, Roth, Atwood—there's something for everybody, which doesn't happen every season.”

Librarians, some anyway, are ready. Columbus (Ohio) Metropolitan Library's Robin Nesbitt says that they were “selective in the spring and summer, waiting for these titles to hit. At the BEA we made note of all these big titles, and we plan to buy heavily.”

If the U.S. economy continues its slow recovery, there is general hope that book sales will flourish. “Books are such a good deal,” says Corvello, “compared to, say, a flat-screen TV.”

 

Biggest Printings

5 million

Dan Brown, The Lost Symbol

2 million

Mitch Albom, Have a Little Faith

Michael Crichton, Pirate Latitudes

1.75 million

John Grisham, Ford County

1.5 million

James Patterson, I, Alex Cross

David Baldacci, True Blue

Edward M. Kennedy, True Compass

Stephen King, Under the Dome

Nicholas Sparks, The Last Song

1.25 million

Sue Grafton, U Is for Undertow

750,000

Pat Conroy, South of Broad

Andre Agassi, Open

Clive Cussler, The Wrecker

Michael Connelly, Nine Dragons

600,000

Terry Goodkind, The Law of Nines

Jon Krakauer, When Men Win Glory: The Odyssey of Pat Tillman

Audrey Niffenegger, Her Fearful Symmetry

Barbara Kingsolver, The Lacuna

J.D. Robb, Kindred in Death

500,000

John Sandford, Rough Country

Highlights

August: The big season starts early, with Pat Conroy's South of Broad (Doubleday), Terry Goodkind's The Law of Nines (Putnam) and Thomas Pynchon's Inherent Vice (Penguin).

September: Dan Brown's blockbuster anchors the month, with a Rowlingesque first printing of 5 million. There will be other big names on the tables, too: Albom's 2 million Have a Little Faith, Krakauer's book about Pat Tillman, a Nicholas Sparks 1.5 million print for The Last Song, not to mention novels from Sandford, Doctorow and Niffenegger.

October: Liberal lion Ted Kennedy's memoir is Twelve's big play this fall; other big nonfiction: William Mann on Liz Taylor, William Shawcross on the Queen Mum, Michael Chabon on “manhood” and fiction from Irving, Rice and Lethem.

November will be hot: Patterson, Grisham and King will duke it out with 1.5+ million printings, while the late Michael Crichton's last book also lands (with 2 million). Michael Lewis examines Wall Street short trading, and Andre Agassi must still have game—given Knopf's 750,000 first printing.

December: Sue Grafton's up to the letter U—for Under Christmas trees?

Busy Imprints

Putnam

Terry Goodkind

John Sandford

Clive Cussler

J.D. Robb

Sue Grafton

Scribner

Stephen King

Audrey Niffenegger

Grand Central Publishing

Pete Dexter

David Baldacci

The Doubleday Publishing Group

Jon Krakauer

John Grisham

Margaret Atwood

Dan Brown

Knopf

Anne Tyler

Anne Rice

Andre Agassi

William Shawcross

The Literary Season

  • Anne Tyler's Noah's Compass: A retired schoolteacher re-evaluates her life.
  • Margaret Atwood's The Year of the Flood: Dystopia follows a natural disaster.
  • Jonathan Lethem's Chronic City: He moves to Manhattan.
  • Philip Roth's The Humbling: An actor goes to seed.
  • Pete Dexter's Spooner: A picaresque tale of the South.
  • John Irving's Last Night in Twisted River: A girl is mistaken for a bear; trouble.
  • E.L. Doctorow's Homer & Langley: The reclusive Collyer brothers and America.

Fall's Big Lineup

SEPTEMBER

9/1 On the Line Serena Williams Grand Central 300,000

9/1 Homer & Langley E.L. Doctorow Random N.A.

9/8 The Last Song Nicholas Sparks Grand Central 1.5 million

9/15 The Lost Symbol Dan Brown Doubleday 5 million

9/15 Where Men Win Glory: The Odyssey of Pat Tillman Jon Krakauer Doubleday 600,000

9/21 The Lost Art of Gratitude Alexander McCall Smith Pantheon 100,000

9/22 Barack and Michelle Christopher Andersen Morrow 200,000

9/22 The Year of the Flood Margaret Atwood Doubleday/Nan A. Talese 150,000

9/24 Spooner Pete Dexter Grand Central 75,000

9/29 Her Fearful Symmetry Audrey Niffenegger Scribner 600,000

9/29 Have a Little Faith Mitch Albom Hyperion 2 million

9/29 Juliet, Naked Nick Hornby Riverhead 300,000

9/29 Rough Country John Sandford Putnam 500,000

OCTOBER

10/6 Manhood for Amateurs Michael Chabon Harper 200,000

10/6 The Christmas List Richard Paul Evans S&S 500,000

10/6 True Compass Edward M. Kennedy Twelve 1.5 million

10/13 Nine Dragons Michael Connelly Little, Brown 750,000

10/13 Chronic City Jonathan Lethem Doubleday 100,000

10/20 True Blue David Baldacci Grand Central 1.5 million

10/20 Southern Lights Danielle Steel Delacorte N.A.

10/21 How to Be a Movie Star: Elizabeth Taylor in Hollywood William J. Mann HMH 100,000

10/23 The Queen Mother William Shawcross Knopf 200,000

10/27 Last Night in Twisted River John Irving Random N.A.

10/27 You Better Not Cry: Stories for Christmas Augusten Burroughs St. Martin's N.A.

10/29 Angel Time Anne Rice Knopf 250,000

NOVEMBER

11/2 The Humbling Philip Roth HMH 75,000

11/2 The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine Michael Lewis Norton N.A.

11/3 No Less than Victory Jeff Shaara Ballantine N.A.

11/3 The Lacuna Barbara Kingsolver Harper 600,000

11/3 Ford County John Grisham Doubleday 1.75 million

11/3 Kindred in Death J.D. Robb Putnam 600,000

11/10 Under the Dome Stephen King Scribner 1.5 million

11/10 Open Andre Agassi Knopf 750,000

11/16 I, Alex Cross James Patterson Little, Brown 1.5 million

11/17 The Wrecker Clive Cussler Putnam 750,000

11/24 Breathless Dean Koontz Bantam N.A.

11/24 Pirate Latitudes Michael Crichton Harper 2 million

DECEMBER

12/1 U Is for Undertow Sue Grafton Putnam 1.25 million

JANUARY

1/10 Noah's Compass Anne Tyler Knopf 300,000

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