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Will the Kindle Flicker Out?
November 21, 2007

Over in the OUP Blog, VP Evan Schnittman ponders whether or not Amazon's Kindle will be the next big thing -- or not. Schnittman points out that Amazon's gamble resembles the iPod winning formula: device + network = success story.

Schnittman also points out that while the device itself has some aesthetic and comfort issues (it's a bit ugly and a bit clunky), its QWERTY keyboard and cellular wireless technology (Amazon's Whispernet) mean that it also has some usability advantages that have never been available before in an ebook.

"The commitment that Amazon has shown to give Kindle the iPod effect it deserves is an enormous risk. Amazon has not only committed itself to becoming a device manufacturer (well, at least a branding an OEM manufacturer’s device), it has committed itself to digitizing and converting everything publishers will give them. The combined expense is massive and if it doesn’t show the right return, may deal Amazon a deathly blow that even an 8th Harry Potter book couldn’t fix.

The risk here isn’t just to Amazon. If Kindle fails, the ebook is over, the theory of the “iPod model” is wrong for eBooks, and publishing must face the reality that consumers just don’t want to read immersive content on electronic screens of any sort."

Schnittman doesn't believe this will happen -- "let's not rain on this glorious parade just yet!" -- but it's good that someone is thinking beyond the actual experience of the Kindle to what it might mean for business and reading strategy. As several readers commented here yesterday, e-readers might be terrific for certain uses (business travelers, classrooms), but most people who read for pleasure will probably pass them by in favor of that simply perfect device: the bound and printed book.


Posted by Bethanne Patrick on November 21, 2007 | Comments (8)


November 21, 2007
In response to: Will the Kindle Flicker Out?
Colleen Lindsay commented:

Okay, here's the deal: The Kindle? Butt-ugly. Heavy. Expensive. And all it does is read books. (Oh, wait, it can read websites, but you have to pay for that.) So here's a heads-up to Jeff Bezos: I've been reading e-books for nearly six years. I read them on my Palm Tungsten E, which I've been using for four years. (My Palm Tungsten E weighs less than four ounces.) Before that, I read them on my old Palm IIIc. I have a lot of format options as well. I can download locked pdb files from eReader.com and use the eReader Pro ($4.95) to read them. I even installed a set of fonts ($14.95) to allow for easier reading. I can use Documents-to-Go Version 8 to transform a PDF or a Word Document to a pdb file, and read those in eReader Pro as well. (Unfortunately, in Version 10 they took out this feature, so I refuse to upgrade.) The Tungsten is a godsend when I need to read manuscripts. Who the hell wants to carry two pounds of paper around if they don't have to? I can also customize the buttons on my Palm to allow me to read one-handed while I ride the subway, changing pages with my thumb. And? Using Avant Go, I can read a lot of websites for free. As well as newspapers and magazines. In addition to all that, my Palm Tungsten E has all my contact files, a calculator, a world clock with a travel alarm, my calendar, a Zagat's Guide, Vindigo (which is a customizable city guide you download for $20 a year - useful because it tells you where everything from ATMs to public restrooms are located), and - lastly - carries the entire Merriam Webster's 11th Collegiate Dictionary on a little tiny SD card. (Oh, and I can play Bejeweled. Very important.) The Kindle can't do any of that. It weighs twice as much as my Palm Tungsten.. And it costs a lot more, too. Plus, as I mentioned above - it's looks like something designed by the Jetsons. So tell me exactly why it is I should buy a Kindle?




November 21, 2007
In response to: Will the Kindle Flicker Out?
ANDREW WHEELER commented:

The most important part of the "iPod model" was that music lovers could rip their existing CDs and load them onto the iPod; it allowed people to enjoy things they already owned in a better way. The Kindle has nothing like that -- it was deliberately made to disallow third-party DRMed ebooks and PDF files. The Kindle also is replicating the least-liked parts of the iPod model: the high price, the nasty DRM, the necessity to use a single supplier. The success or failure of the Kindle will say nothing about the "iPod model" in the ebook market, since the Kindle isn't doing what made the iPod popular. It will only show that the book business is still enraptured by predatory DRM, and will have to break that addiction if anyone's ebook reader is ever going to succeed.




November 21, 2007
In response to: Will the Kindle Flicker Out?
Michael commented:

Comparing the Kindle to the "iPod model" overlooks the key to the iPod's success: design, beauty, and an astonishingly simple mechanism. There were MP3 players before iPod, but none that managed to make digital music seem easy, cool, and pretty. iPod changed the landscape for digital music players forever. The Kindle looks like something designed for How the Future Was back in 1978. In the same year that sees the iPhone transform devices into all-screen--including QWERTY keyboards--Bezos and crew introduce an old-school button keyboard on their "breakthrough" device. Huh. We can only hope that Apple will one day deign to tackle ebooks, because the Kindle is going to die a swift, ignominious death.




November 21, 2007
In response to: Will the Kindle Flicker Out?
Moe, BellaOnline commented:

A few of us were talking about it yesterday. While we think it's a neat idea and something we would happily use, we wouldn't fork out the money for it or put it on a Christmas list for someone to buy for us. It's just too expensive. We'd continue to suffer over our wireless laptops instead. If it were around $100 then I would definitely get one.




November 23, 2007
In response to: Will the Kindle Flicker Out?
Tony Rabig commented:

I'll second much of what Colleen Lindsay said -- I've been reading ebooks on PC screens and Palm handhelds for about seven years now. While the Kindle looks like one nifty piece of equipment, the proprietary format is a deal-breaker for me. As it is, I can read DRM and non-DRM ebooks in several formats on my Palm or my PC; not so with the Kindle. If I have to put up with DRM, I'd rather purchase from EReader, which does DRM the way it should be -- read your ebook on any device you like, but before opening the file on that device for the first time you have to key in the unlock code: your name and the credit card number you used to buy the book. Neat, not too inconvenient, and not something you're likely to "share" with the whole planet by posting it on the web. If the Kindle fails it won't be because it's ugly (myself, I don't think it's all that bad -- I certainly wouldn't be embarrassed to be seen with it). It won't be because people don't want to read on screens. It'll be because enough people already reading ebooks don't want yet another proprietary format, and a more restrictive format than the others at that; Mobipocket and Adobe at least have options to let you change the devices you're reading on. If I understand correctly, the Kindle ties you to that particular Kindle, unless you replace it with another Kindle. No thanks. I like being able to use any PC or handheld I own for reading. And the Kindle failing won't mean the ebook is over. Evan Schnittman is confusing the book with the device on which it's being read. Sooner or later, someone will do a device similar to the Kindle that's as multiple-format-friendly as a Palm handheld, and that can accommodate the different DRM schemes (unless DRM finally dies out). Amazon probably could have done that here, but chose to try to restrict customers to ebooks purchased from only one source; if Kindle fails, that proprietary format will be a big part of the reason. Bezos and Co. aren't stupid -- they may see the light yet. Me, I'm waiting for the Kindle II. Bests to all --tr




November 24, 2007
In response to: Will the Kindle Flicker Out?
Kevin A. Lewis commented:

As aesthetic reader first and foremost, I see a much more limited market for this thing than all the bought-and-paid- for media gush would indicate. Of course, if people want to pay top dollar for booby-trap ridden reinvention of the wheel, be my guest, but this is one "glorious parade" I'll sit out...




January 4, 2008
In response to: Will the Kindle Flicker Out?
J Wallace commented:

Just to post some much-needed corrections to Colleen Lindsay: (1) Kindle is only 10 ounces; not heavy by any stretch of the imagination (2) The web access on Kindle is totally free-- you don't pay for it. (3) It does more than read books, although the extras, like the free web access, MP3 player, and instant-answers on demand service (also free) are just that-- extra. It does what it was designed for marvelously well. (4) Why should you buy a Kindle? YOU shouldn't. From reading your comments, it's clear you aren't the target audience. This product is for people who don't care to read on an LCD 2-inch screen like a PDA or cell phone, don't want eye-strain, and love being able to change font-sizes easily. The e-ink screen beats the tar out of your Tungsten whatever-it-is, because it looks like real paper. The Kindle marries extreme convenience with an extremely pleasant reading experience. The Kindle is for the rest of us. If you're happy with your current reading device, great. Stick with it. But for the rest of us-- there's Kindle.




February 3, 2008
In response to: Will the Kindle Flicker Out?
GAshley commented:

I currently carry over a hundred e-books (mostly from Baen/Webscriptions on my T3. There are some Kindle e-books on Amazon I'd like to have, but I'm not going to shell out the Money for a Kindle when I have a perfectly satisfactory device already. I'll just buy the paperbacks, if they don't make it over to Mobi or other e-book vendors. FWIW, I think Amazon is being short-sighted, but it's their business.





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