Book Sales Projected To Rise 3.2% in 2001

Projections released by the Book Industry Study Group estimate that total book sales in 2001 will increase 3.2%, to $25.62 billion. If the forecast is right, the sales growth in the year will be lower than the 4.5% gain posted in 2000. The association expects the sales increase to be fueled by price increases as units are projected to dip 0.1%, to 2.49 billion.

The slowing economy is expected to keep demand soft for trade titles in the year, particularly in the adult segment, where trade paperback sales are forecast to fall 5.8%, to $1.79 billion, and sales for hardcovers are projected to remain flat at $2.68 billion. Predictions are a bit better for the juvenile segment, with BISG expecting a 3.5% increase in the year, to $2.02 billion. The increase will be largely due to a 7.5% improvement in juvenile paperback sales, to $809.7 million, while sales in the hardcover segment (which were given a huge boost last year by Harry Potter) are expected to rise 1.0%, to $1.21 billion.

Growing enrollments and at least one more year of strong funding will result in a sales gain of 7.3%, to $4.16 billion, this year in the elhi segment, the largest gain projected by BISG. Sales of college texts are expected to increase at a more modest 4.1% rate, to $3.37 billion.

In other consumer segments, BISG predicts a 2.8% sales increase, to $1.60 billion, for mass market paperbacks, a gain driven entirely by price increases. The religious segment is expected to show improvement over its 2.5% growth rate in 2000, with BISG estimating a 3.7% sales gain this year, to $1.29 billion. Sales through book clubs are expected to increase 1.5% in 2001—the same growth rate they had in 2000—and will finish the year with total sales of $1.31 billion. Following a surprising 4.6% increase in sales in the mail order segment in 2000, the long-term downward trade in that category is expected to resume in 2001 with sales projected to fall 6.3%, to $404.6 million, as continuity books continue to lose appeal to the public.

Sales in the professional segment are expected to cool in 2001 following a n8.7% gain last year. BISG estimates that sales will rise 5.5% in the year, to $5.41 billion, driven by better than 7.0% increases in both the business and law segments. BISG is expecting a solid year for the university press category, predicting that sales will increase 5.7%, to $486.1 million.

Publishers' Projected Sales, 2001, In Dollars and Units (in millions)