BISG Predicts 2.8% Increase in Sales in 2002

Industry sales are projected to increase 2.8% in 2002, to $24.41 billion, according to estimates from the Book Industry Study Group. Total unit sales are predicted to fall 0.7% in the year, to 2.39 billion.

The largest sales gain is expected to be in the elhi segment, where sales are projected to rise 6.6%, to $4.46 billion. The elhi segment had the largest gain in 2001 as well. With a 4.7% increase, to $3.63 billion, the college segment is projected to have the second largest gain.

The adult trade segment is expected to improve slightly over a weak 2001. Hardcover sales will increase by just under 1%, to $2.65 billion, and trade paperback sales will rise 2.9%, to $1.98 billion, according to the BISG forecast. Children's hardcover sales are projected to fall 6.3%, to $870.1 million, in 2002 following a 22.7% decline in 2001. The children's paperback segment, which had a 17.9% increase in 2001, is expected to have a 0.6% sales decline, to $882.1 million, this year. Sales in the mass market paperback segment are projected to increase 2.5%, to $1.58 billion, in 2002.

The BISG outlook forecasts a rebound for the professional book market with sales increasing 2.4%, to $4.85 billion, in 2002 following a 7.6% decline in 2001. The turnaround is expected to be led by the medical segment, where sales are projected to rise 5.8%. Sales are predicted to increase 5.3% in the legal category. Business sales are expected to fall 0.7% this year after a 6.2% decline in 2001, while technical/scientific/other sales are projected to fall 2.6% after a 9.3% decline in 2001.

Following a 4.7% increase in religious book sales in 2001, sales are expected to taper off in 2002 to a 2.9% growth rate. Sales are also expected to slow in the book club segment from a 3.3% gain in 2001 to a 2.0% increase this year. Mail order sales will continue to fall in 2002, dropping 5.7%, according to the forecast.

For the period from 2001 through 2006, total sales are expected to increase 18%, to $28.02 billion, with units projected to increase 1.9%, to 2.46 billion.

Sales Forecast by Segment, 2002
($in millions)