Sara Paretsky Jeffery Deaver. Michael Connelly, Janet Evanovich and James Patterson. It doesn't take a rocket scientist—or, more appropriately, an ace detective—to deduce what these notable authors have in common. Not only are they all bestseller list veterans, they write mysteries—or whatever label their publishers prefer (see "Anatomy of a Mystery," p. 30), and each author has a new book coming out within the next three months, with announced printings ranging from 1.5 million to to a "paltry" 150,000. Add to this roster other bestselling crime scribes—Robert B. Parker, Elizabeth Peters, Mary Higgins Clark, Stuart Woods et al.—whose recently released tomes are already flying off the shelves, and one might conclude the mystery market's full to bursting.

Not so, says John Cunningham, publisher of St. Martin's Minotaur imprint. "Mystery is a tradition-laden category. Fortunately, one of those traditions is the eager acceptance of new authors and new series. In fact, mystery readers are always looking for that breakout hit—a sleeper—a book that is so good it fairly leaps from a crowded pack of brand name authors and demands your attention."

The idea of a sleeper in this category is no impossible dream—take, for example, the case of The Rule of Four, published by Dial in May 2004. This debut title broke out bigtime, spending 22 weeks on PW's list, with a whopping one million copies in print after 26 printings. Are there better chances for a surprise hit with mysteries than in other categories, perhaps? Could be, says Bantam Dell publicity director Barb Burg. "Mystery readers are constantly looking for some new twist, something they haven't encountered before. In addition, the time seemed to be right for Rule's combination of mystery, history and code. We knew Ian [Caldwell] and Dustin [Thomason] had written a spectacular book, and we were determined to make it a hit. Happily this time all the stars were aligned, but let's face it: sometimes you just have to trust in those mysterious publishing gods."

"Anything truly fresh can be catnip to reviewers and readers alike," says Putnam senior editor David Highfill. "We've published four novels by Edgar-winner David Ellis since 2001, but his latest, In the Company of Liars, has been his strongest out of the gate so far. I think we're seeing more reviews in the first week this time partly because Liars is so unusual. It's told from the end to the beginning—à la the indie hit Memento—and of all the style choices a writer might tackle, you'd be hard pressed to come up with one more rare."

A sleeper, says Little, Brown publisher Michael Pietsch, "is one of those books that has nothing unusual to lift it above the thousands of competitive titles published every month—no hot one-liner, no undreamed-of plot twist—just the author's talent and the sheer pleasure of the experience of reading it. It's the one that the conversation at sales conference cocktails turns to as soon as everyone is done discussing the books they have to talk about. We identify them just by keeping our ears open for unfeigned excitement, particularly among younger staff members, and which titles we actually hear back from the most inundated writers about."

As Warner Books senior publicity manager Susan Richman puts it, "A discovery is what really makes this business exciting. We love publishing our big-name authors, but when a new writer breaks out of the pack, that's a special thrill—to spread the word to fans who are eager to read someone new and terrific."

Though the recipe for a sleeper in this category is itself a major mystery, PW decided to sift through the clues (read: forthcoming mystery titles) for possible breakout hits—those "new and terrific" titles that could keep readers turning the pages well into the night.


PanicTitle/Author:Panic by Jeff Abbott
Publisher: Dutton (Sept.), $23.95
Category: thriller
The Plot: Returning home to Austin, Tex., after an urgent call from his mother, Evan Casher finds her brutally murdered. He narrowly escapes an attempt on his own life, only to uncover a shocking fact—his entire life has been a carefully constructed lie.
The First Sentence: "The phone awoke Evan Casher, and he knew something was wrong."
The Hollywood High Concept: Robert Ludlum meets Alfred Hitchcock.
Bucking the Odds: According to Dutton president and publisher Brian Tart, "Award-winning and bestselling author Jeff Abbott has had great success in his writing career already, but he has never been published in hardcover. Panic is his first stand-alone novel, and the big breakout book his fans have been waiting for."
Marketing Plans: Extensive review coverage; author tour; pre-pub galley mailings; Web marketing

The Right MadnessTitle/Author:The Right Madness by James Crumley
Publisher: Viking (May), $24.95
Category: hard-boiled
Plot: Commissioned to track down his friend's missing psychoanalysis files, ex—army officer—turned—PI C.W. Sughrue stumbles upon a series of gruesome murders and finds solace in old friends: alcohol, drugs and depraved sexual escapades.
The First Sentence: "It was a lovely, calm Montana summer evening, a Saturday night after a long weekend of softball."
The Hollywood High Concept: A grittier Fargo, set in the Southwest and starring Law and Order's Lenny Briscoe.
Bucking the Odds: According to publicity director Carolyn Coleburn, "This is the first book in almost five years from the author of the now classic The Last Good Kiss; we've had amazing bookseller response from the advance reads." A starred PW review (Apr. 11) should help the book's chances for success.
Marketing Plans: Six-city author tour plus local Montana events; national review attention and print features

Cold Granite

Title/Author:Cold Granite by Stuart MacBride
Publisher: St. Martin's/Minotaur (July), $24.95
Category: police procedural
The Plot: After recuperating from a stab wound, DS Logan McRae returns to his job in the Aberdeen, Scotland, CID only to be assigned to the most horrific case of his life—an unusually sadistic serial killer.
The First Sentence: "Dead things had always been special to him."
The Hollywood High Concept: Michael Connelly meets Mark Haddon (The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-time).
Bucking the Odds: MacBride's novel, says SMP publicity director Linda McFall, "is so amazingly accomplished for a debut that it's no surprise that he is being positioned in the U.K. as the next major voice in crime fiction. We're sure that the book will have everyone talking over here as well."
Marketing Plans: Print advertising campaign; Book Sense campaign; a Minotaur First Edition Selection; featured title on Minotaurbooks.com; e-mail marketing campaign

Fever

Title/Author:Fever by Sean Rowe
Publisher: Little, Brown (Sept.), $19.95
Category: thriller
The Plot: Ex-con Jack Fontana presents his stepbrother, Matt "Loose Cannon" Shannon, an ex—FBI agent— turned—head of security for the world's largest cruise line, with an irresistible offer: one simple heist that will keep them in big bucks for a lifetime. But when the gig turns violent, Shannon needs all the help he can get to save a hijacked cruise ship.
The First Sentence: "Some guys don't know when to quit. That's your problem."
The Hollywood High Concept:Ocean's Eleven meets Get Shorty.
Bucking the Odds: Says senior editor Judy Clain: "Part James Cain, part Elmore Leonard, Fever is a blisteringly fast-paced, high-concept thriller that's already earned raves from heavy hitters James Patterson and Jeffery Deaver."
Marketing Plans: A special low price—$19.95—to introduce this new writer, who'll be making appearances in Florida (where the cruise line is based) and North Carolina (where Rowe lives, renovating a turn-of-the- century farmhouse). Rowe's amazing backstory—he survived a month-long coma after being hit by a train—seems sure to pick up feature coverage. Advertising in the New York Times Book Review, People, Time and the MiamiHerald.

Six Bad Things

Title/Author:Six Bad Things by Charlie Huston
Publisher: Ballantine trade paper original (July), $12.95
Category: thriller
The Plot: When a Russian backpacker starts asking all the wrong questions, Hank Thompson realizes that his quiet days on a Mexican beach are over and that the past he thought he'd outrun isn't done with him—or his family.
The First Sentence: "I'm sitting on the porch of a bungalow on the Yucatan Peninsula with lit cigarettes sticking out of both my ears."
The Hollywood High Concept:The Good, the Bad and the Ugly directed by Quentin Tarantino.
Bucking the Odds: Says Ballantine editor Mark Tavani: "Charlie Huston is one of the most talented authors to join the genre in many a year. A ferociously paced crime thriller, Six Bad Things is a gripping and fiercely penned tour of the American West and the heart of crime fiction's most unforgettable new character. Pre-pub praise has come from writers as diverse as Jeff Lindsay, Peter Straub and James Frey."
Marketing Plans: On top of the usual marketing (national review attention, bookstore appearances, etc.), Ballantine is using a two-pronged marketing approach, going after both the mystery book fans and the younger, edgier crowd that will attach to the novel's voice and daring style. For the mystery crowd, the publisher will be giving away copies to support the author's BEA appearance and will be distributing a sampler booklets at the Edgar Awards banquet, at Malice Domestic and to mystery bookstores throughout the country. Advertising will run on a number of Web sites aimed at a hip, younger demographic, and a pre-pub book party will be held in New York City.

Dark Harbor

Title/Author:Dark Harbor by David Hosp
Publisher: Warner Books (June), $24.95
Category:thriller
The Plot: A young Boston lawyer becomes the chief suspect in the murder of a colleague.
The First Sentence: "Ed Tannery leaned back into the vinyl seat as the commuter train pulled out of the station."
The Hollywood High Concept: Scott Turow meets The Firm.
Bucking the Odds: "I was grabbed by Dark Harbor instantly," says Maureen Egen, president and COO, Time Warner Book Group. "It reminded me of the early David Baldacci. I showed it to some colleagues and they were as blown away as I was, so I knew we had something big on our hands. The reaction of booksellers has been just as enthusiastic. David Hosp, a rising star in the Boston legal community, uses his insider's knowledge to infuse his extraordinary debut with real-life details. This should truly be one of the big sleepers of the season."
Marketing Plans: Print advertising in the New York Times Book Review, Boston Globe, USA Today, Time. Publicity: New England pre-pub bookseller dinner; author appearances at BEA and ALA; New England publicity; national media campaign; national print ad campaign; special reader's editions; Web marketing.

Half Broken Things

Title/Author:Half Broken Things by Morag Joss
Publisher: Delacorte (Oct.), $22
Category: psychological suspense
The Plot: When their peaceful, newly created life is threatened, three unlikely strangers—a lonely housekeeper, a pregnant teenager and a con-man drifter—must go to unimaginable lengths to protect what they now cannot live without.
The First Sentence: "This is not what it might look like."
The Hollywood High Concept: Daphne du Maurier meets The Hand That Rocks the Cradle.
Bucking the Odds: From Bantam Dell executive editor Kate Miciak: "With penetrating character studies and a shattering climax, Joss's latest garnered extensive critical acclaim when it was published in the U.K. in 2003; was heralded by P.D. James (and also garnered favorable comparisons to her); and won Britain's coveted Crime Writers Association's Silver Dagger Award."
Marketing Plans: Author publicity; sponsorship announcements on NPR; national print advertising; a mystery feature at www.bantamdell.com; promotion in the back of Joss's three mass market paperback originals (Funeral Music, Fearful Symmetry, Fruitful Bodies), which will be published for the first time in the U.S. this summer.

Thrilling! On the theory that there's strength in numbers, more than 150 thriller writers—whose output represents more than one billion books in print worldwide—have banded together to form the International Thriller Writers Organization (www.internationalthrillerwriters.com). First conceived of at Bouchercon in October 2004, ITW has grown to include well-known authors Anne Rice, Lee Child and Clive Cussler among its members.
ITW co-president (and author of four thrillers) Gayle Lynds sees the group's purpose as threefold: raising the profile of thrillers; creating a community for thriller writers; and combating what Lynds terms "the trouble publishing is in right now," by which she means a lack of thinking outside the box on the part of publishers.
To a certain degree, the ITW will fill in the gaps left by publishers who have neglected to market books effectively. M.J. Rose, author of The Halo Effect(Mira, 2004) and four other novels, is chair of the organization's marketing committee.
According to Rose, it's not that publishers aren't doing their jobs when it comes to marketing—although they could do better—but that the critical mass of such a group is bound to be more effective than what any one house can accomplish.
Marketing plans include a monthly newsletter for thriller readers—with a mailing list created by melding the fan lists of the group's various members—and a thriller book club, both launching in June.
ITW will attempt to publish a book each year, beginning with Thriller, an anthology edited by ITW member James Patterson, due from Mira in 2006. An awards program is in the works as well, with four awards (for best novel, best film, best first novel and lifetime achievement) scheduled to be distributed at the group's first convention, in June 2006. —Natalie Danford