Remember when your 10-day trip to Europe was guaranteed to impress the neighbors? "Paris in August," you could say with a world-weary roll of the eyes, leaving them to supply the ennui, not to mention the exoticism. Now, with hot destinations continually emerging, you have to go further afield to impress the Joneses. Forget Hawaii, think Galapagos.

In order to maintain their market share in an increasingly crowded and competitive category, publishers must keep abreast of an endless supply of information. Their attention was captured recently by a list of top 10 emerging destinations featured on Travel Mole (www.travelmole.com), an online community and news site that caters to more than 450,000 travel industry professionals worldwide. The list, which was compiled by Opodo, an online travel company owned by nine European airlines, led off with Bulgaria, followed by Russia, Morocco, Cuba, Australia, Brazil, India, Dubai, China and South Africa.

But don't go booking those tickets just yet. Not everyone agrees with Opodo's list. A guidebook publisher's life isn't that easy.

Oh, the Other Places You'll Go

While most major travel publishers already cover all 10 locations on Opodo's list, there's plenty of debate about which ones are still growing and which have already peaked. Some players foresee other locales entirely as the current hotspots in the making.

Fodor's publisher Tim Jarrell, for example, claims that "Latin and Central America have started to take off; they hold allure for Americans."

At Frommer's, new guides for Guatemala and Panama will debut later this year, but publisher Mike Spring suggests China for the "big trip" list. "China tourism is going to continue to grow, with the 2008 Olympics," he says. "But savvy travelers are going there now. What's happened since 9/11 hasn't changed. Travelers want destinations that are safe, accessible and affordable, but with elements of adventure and escape."

Lonely Planet's publishing manager Brice Gosnell thinks Opodo's list is generally on target, but he wasn't alone in being perplexed by Bulgaria's #1 ranking. True, the European Union appears ready to offer membership next January, but other Union members fear that the country's crime and corruption will be a major export. "Instead of Bulgaria, I'd say Poland," says Gosnell.

News of Fidel Castro's health scare inspired much speculation about the future of Cuba. Travel there is restricted for Americans, but a change in leadership may create an opening, according to Avalon Travel publisher Bill Newlin, who oversees the popular Rick Steves series on Europe as well as Moon Handbooks. Understandably, Moon's Cuba title sells more copies outside the U.S. than domestically. "Cuba remains very hot in the U.K. and Canada, but U.S. travel there has been drastically affected by five years of Bush administration policies," Newlin says. "Cuba has the potential to be the jewel of the Caribbean," says Geoff Colquitt, marketing director for Rough Guides in North America; The Rough Guide to Cuba is among the publisher's top five titles in Canada.

Chuck Lang, v-p of publishing and marketing for Langenscheidt Publishing Group, is keeping an eye on Cuba, but has already seen an uptick in interest. "Being in the news can create increased [book] sales, if not necessarily increased travel."

The appeal of some destinations is in the eye of the beholder. Take Dubai, for example, which most agree is huge with travelers from everywhere—except the United States. Lang says, "Dubai is safe, spotless, magnificent, one of the wonders of the world. It's one of our top five sellers in the U.K., but there's no publishing demand for it here. It's an undiscovered treat." Spring at Frommer's believes that Americans will eventually discover Dubai, but is not as convinced of its allure. "It could expand, but not in the near future. I'm not sure there's that much there. It's a beach and shopping."

Decisions, Decisions

Despite the differing opinions about Opodo's list, Jeff Serena, editorial director of Globe Pequot, best known for its Insiders' Guides, argues that the process of deciding what's hot is relatively straightforward. "It's not inherently difficult to predict," he says. "We gather data from the U.S. State Department and from travel agencies. We also read every possible periodical and travel report. You have to be well read."

Each publisher has its own formula for making key decisions on adding, changing or updating guides.

"At Fodor's we're constantly assessing what destinations we should publish into," explains Jarrell. "Our regional editors are responsible for staying on top of what's going on and making recommendations. We also look at book sales—our own and those of other publishers."

LPG's Lang says the company also relies on its global presence. "We have a real advantage because we have a sister company in the U.K. and in Singapore to compare notes, statistics, lists and trends. Of course, there's talk in the industry. We are all in this together—although you don't give away secrets. It's not an exact science."

Similarly, Rough Guides and DK Eyewitness must take the worldwide travel picture into account when deciding what guides to produce. Colquitt says, "We may do a guide to Lanzarote, which most Americans don't know is one of the Canary Islands. But there's a need for it in England and elsewhere, and we still do sell a few copies in the States. These are the kinds of things that get considered on a global basis."

As the only publisher covering every country in the world, Gosnell at Lonely Planet says being responsive to travel patterns takes on greater importance. "Based on trends, we would include Uruguay in our South America regional guide, because we don't see enough travel just to Uruguay to justify a single destination book. But you have to constantly reevaluate that," he says. "We just published an updated Nicaragua/El Salvador guide, but I already know that next time they'll be separate books."

Guidebook publishers target different types of travelers, meaning they home in on the factors most weighing on their particular customers. That tends to leave consensus about what overall travel developments mean nearly impossible to reach.

Still, Spring insists Frommer's—which marks its 50th anniversary next spring— has identified one major development that will affect all the publishers. "The mass market traveler is staying close to home, and the increase in growth is among the wealthy. Guidebook companies are publishing guides to satisfy a more adventurous traveler," he says. "We would never have dreamed of doing these exotic destinations five or 10 years ago. The numbers just wouldn't have justified it."

Books in Transit

While publishers court travelers in search of the next exotic destination, they still acknowledge it's the traditional locations that matter most. And they have a host of initiatives in development aimed at staying competitive in both arenas.

Spring says, "Paris, London and England are still our bread and butter. Our success still depends largely on traditional destinations." Fodor's Jarrell concurs, noting that the company will continue revamping its Gold Guides and Top 25 series in the coming year. "This past year, Europe and Italy were very strong. Overall, sales are doing well. Right now the economy is good and Americans are traveling. Domestic travel has been affected by gas prices, but Americans are still traveling internationally."

According to Avalon's Newlin, "It's still true that the largest destinations with the key brands sell the most numbers, and they remain the foundation of our business: we sell more copies of Rick Steves' Italy than many other entire series do in a year." Avalon will be putting out a new Rick Steves guide to Istanbul in March, and is planning more Moon guides to targeted destinations such as national parks.

Lang agrees that Europe is where the most action is internationally. "People still want to go to London, but they may want to experience the city in a different way. We are running out of exotic destinations. People are looking to be more exotic in regular destinations."

Colquitt says, "There are four to five cities you have to do because they sell—like London, Paris, New York—but we are also covering other cities like Barcelona with our new Real Cities series, which will target younger travelers." Rough Guides is currently finishing complete redesigns and updates of all guides in honor of its 25th anniversary in 2007, among other new projects. DK Eyewitness will strengthen its South and Latin American offerings with new four-color guides.

The current outlook for travel—and by extension for travel publishers—is cautiously optimistic. "Right now, it's good," says Colquitt. "There's negative news out there, but I don't know if it will scare people off travel." Colquitt's good news? "It's still trending up."

Top 10 Destinations
According to a new item posted Aug. 3 on Travelmole.com, these locales are the "must" destinations for next year.
Bulgaria. Prospect of joining the EU in January Russia. 24% increase in bookings this year. Morocco. Dropping fares, stunning hotels and a quick flight mean that the country is now appealing to the wealthy-and-in-a-hurry set Cuba. After Fidel, what? American invasion—of tourists? Australia. Competition among airlines once the Airbus A380 takes off will bring prices down. Brazil. Soccer status and unspoiled terrain. India. Flight capacity on the rise will lower prices. Dubai. Americans don't dig it; they didn't dig a Dubai-based company's planned takeover of domestic ports, either. But tastes may change. A shopping extravaganza. China. 2008 Olympics will draw. South Africa. 2010 FIFA World Cup will heighten awareness of South Africa; a weak rand also a plus.
Spots, Real Hot
One of the most challenging issues publishers have dealt with recently is how to tackle emerging situations—political, natural and otherwise—in their guides. Fodor's was binding its New Orleans guide when Katrina hit, and had to kill the book. It has just released a new edition, which, says publisher Tim Jarrell, "includes a focus on Katrina with a map of the flooding and a driving tour."

Frommer's has just released its first full New Orleans guide since Katrina. "We waited until things had settled down enough," says publisher Mike Spring.

Israel is another area for which many publishers had new guidebooks this year, in response to huge demand. DK updated its Eyewitness Jerusalem this year, and Fodor's and Langenscheidt both recently put out new Israel titles. Frommer's is tentatively planning to go to press with one in October. Spring says, "You need to take a leap of faith to some extent. People have always traveled to Israel, even in dangerous times."

Lonely Planet's Israel guide is due next spring. "It's tricky because we're not news organizations, but we are content providers," Brice Gosnell explains. "We're figuring out where you draw the line and trying to direct people to good information."

Globe Pequot distributes the U.K.-based Bradt Guides in the U.S. The publisher is unique in targeting unsettled areas. Editorial director Jeff Serena explains, "When there is a crisis, warfare or a natural disaster, visitation rates for tourists decline to near zero, but people still use guidebooks—thousands of aid workers and journalists may be going there." Still, publishers have to be careful. Avalon's Bill Newlin says, "In light of recent events, we try to place perishable information in sidebars, where it can easily be replaced at reprint, then print short on the initial run and be ready to make adjustments."
Desktop Adventurers
Publishers once feared that the Internet would ruin the guidebook business. It hasn't done that, but it has claimed some victims. For example, Globe Pequot sold hundreds of thousands of bed-and-breakfast guides in the late '80s and early '90s. "Now that every bed-and-breakfast has a Web site, there's no need for the books anymore. That category is virtually gone," says GP's Jeff Serena.

Lonely Planet has built its own online community of travelers. Among the many links at www.lonelyplanet.com are Destinations, Book Shop, Download Shop, Travel Services and numerous Thorn Tree discussions; the "Choose a Country" window offers 78 options. "People do a lot of research online, getting comfortable and reading others' experiences. Travelers are communicating with each other and Lonely Planet facilitates that," Brice Gosnell says. "It's amazing how savvy people have become."

Tom Mercer, publisher of Let's Go, which targets a younger consumer, says it's impossible to ignore the Web's influence. "In general, the Internet facilitates word of mouth and it accelerates trends. It fuels the growth of destinations. Ten years ago this was done literally through word of mouth."

Extensive market research conducted by Langenscheidt's Chuck Lang shows good news. "The Internet is helping the entire category. It has opened the world to us. At the end of the day, many people are not going to spend three days on the computer. They will go to the bookstore"—and then they might take a trip.