Collier (The Bottom Billion) surveys the causes and costs of political violence—and etches out a path to peace in Wars, Guns, and Votes.

As former director of the development research group at the World Bank, you were known to defy the group's conventional wisdom—especially by pointing out abuses of foreign aid. What do you think about the World Bank today?

The bank has ossified and acquired many of the faults of a big, old bureaucracy. However, there is finally a very strong African representation in senior management, and I think that Robert Zoellick could well turn out to be the best president the bank has ever had. The world still needs the World Bank. The notion that the private sector could fix the problem of development has surely been revealed as a chimera. To date, the solution pushed by the rich world has been [to champion democratic] elections. I think that this has been naïve. We have to become more effective: in the political struggles being waged in poor societies—the brave and honest are too often defeated.

You predicted that President Mugabe would win re-election in 2008. Did you foresee the ensuing outcry and political stalemate?

I'm afraid I expected pretty much what has happened, including the weak response from other African governments. The real heroic action in the whole affair was the refusal of South African dock workers to unload guns for Mugabe. With Zuma replacing Mbeki, there is some hope that South Africa will rise to its responsibilities in the neighborhood.

You argue that education can help create a coherent national identity. Is that an adequate strategy to deal with ethnic divisions?

The task of building national identity takes political leadership that must come from within the society. Leaders have to find a discourse that works in their society and then use the key channels of communication, such as slum radio, to change people's perceptions. In Rwanda, slum radio was used to divide a society, but it could equally be used to unite.

Do you agree with economist Jeffrey Sachs's statement: “Africa's governance is poor because Africa is poor?” Or do you find the relationship to be more complex?

I agree with Jeff that Africa is in a poverty trap. At very low income levels, politics is far more difficult—even basics like security cannot be properly provided. Direct efforts to raise income are therefore part of the solution. But the other aspects of the trap need to be tackled at the same time: Africa needs improved governance, and it needs improved security. The three are mutually reinforcing.