cover image The Big Flatline: 
Oil and the No-Growth Economy

The Big Flatline: Oil and the No-Growth Economy

Jeff Rubin. Palgrave Macmillan, $27 (272p) ISBN 978-0-230-34218-7

In his thought-provoking and accessible latest, Rubin (Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller), chief economist at the Canadian bank CBIC World Markets for almost 20 years, argues: “The price of oil is the single most important ingredient in the outlook for the world economy.” While substitute fuels exist for some functions, oil is indispensable for transportation. The key issue is not absolute supply, but production costs—oil that nobody can afford to extract is useless. With production costs steadily rising, and growing demand in China and India, the juggernaut of world demand seems implacable. Rubin argues that high oil prices encourage exploration and production and force conservation. He also, unusually for an economist, suggests that the advent of a scant- or no-growth economy might offer advantages. Rubin’s wide-ranging examination of assorted energy issues, while scarcely cheerful reading, offers acerbic insights. For example, environmental opposition to the Keystone pipeline is likely to send the crude to China, raising the likelihood of another Exxon Valdez supertanker disaster. In this no-nonsense analysis, his grimmest observation is that, with oil and other hydrocarbons as the driver, economic growth is transforming into more of a zero-sum activity, with frightening implications for the poorest nations. Agent: Rick Broadhead, Rick Broadhead Associates. (Oct.)