What Are the Chances?: Why We Believe in Luck

Psychology and neuroscience professor Blatchley (Statistics in Context) takes an impressive and accessible look at luck and humans’ refusal to accept randomness. Luck, she writes, means different things to everyone, but generally it combines random, unexpected events; preparation; and one’s personality. It’s also connected to one’s ability to accept randomness and make good use of “skill, ability, training, effort, and work.” Thus, “lucky” people use their attention more efficiently and are more adept at noticing random events instead of ignoring them, as “unlucky” people do. Though it’s “illogical, irrational, and as unscientific as all get out” to believe in luck or curses, she suggests, doing so is nonetheless characteristic of humans and helps in making sense of the world and giving one a feeling of being in control. Blatchley’s strength is in her ability to illustrate the intricacies of the human brain using an informal, witty tone: ERPs, a type of brain test involving “a goofy-looking cap,” for instance, have indicated that believing oneself to be unlucky changes how the brain processes information. Those wondering why they’ve never managed to buy a winning lottery ticket would do well to start here. (Aug.)