The Fate of Hong Kong: The Coming of 1997 and What Lies Beyond

Noting that the ``fortune of Hong Kong has always been tied up with the fortune of China,'' Segal (Rethinking the Pacific ) presents what he sees as China's options when the British leave Hong Kong in 1997. If China continues to encourage regional entrepreneurism, as it is doing in Guandong province, then, Segal indicates, it seems likely that Hong Kong will lose its unique position as the sole ``window on the international trading system.'' Conversely, what will be the foreseeable effects if Hong Kong does remain that only window? And how will China's decisions affect emigration, local and international investment and trade? Such questions provide springboards for Segal's acute, well-informed analyses of the past policies of Taiwan, Australia, Britain, Canada and the U.S. towards China and Hong Kong, and the potential future repercussions, particularly on immigration policies. But since China's intentions are still unpredictable, Segal's erudite meditations and review of Asian politics seem like a sophisticated exercise in reading tea leaves. (Sept.)