cover image NINE CRAZY IDEAS IN SCIENCE: A Few Might Even Be True

NINE CRAZY IDEAS IN SCIENCE: A Few Might Even Be True

Robert Ehrlich, . . Princeton Univ., $24.95 (256pp) ISBN 978-0-691-07001-8

Evolution was considered a "crazy idea" 150 years ago—and still is by some people—but within 50 years of its introduction, it was accepted by most scientists. Today a handful of scientists believe that oil and gas have not been produced by the decay of organic materials and that massive reserves exist deep in the earth. How should we go about evaluating such ideas, which may appear to be "crazy" at first glance? Here, Ehrlich, a professor of physics at George Mason University and author of other popular-science books (Why Toast Lands Jelly-Side Down ), looks at nine offbeat ideas to show how seriously they should be taken. He uses a rating system of zero to four cuckoos ("why not?" to "certainly false") to evaluate the plausibility of each one. Ideas such as "More guns mean less crime" and "There was no big bang" receive three cuckoos ("almost certainly not true"). However, awarding zero cuckoos to the idea that "faster-than-light particles exist" (in his own area of expertise) but three to "AIDS is not caused by HIV" may lead readers to question his objectivity, since there is still as much to be learned about retroviruses as about tachyons. Some chapters are better argued than others: Ehrlich persuasively shows how a nonbiogenic origin for oil and natural gas is at least plausible, whereas the writing gets sloppy at times in the AIDS and time travel chapters. The author says that the book is aimed at the "general reader," but science buffs won't find much here that's new and interesting; other readers may miss the spark of excitement and enthusiasm found in the best popular-science writing. (May)