cover image Weak Strongman: The Limits of Power in Putin’s Russia

Weak Strongman: The Limits of Power in Putin’s Russia

Timothy Frye. Princeton Univ, $24.95 (280p) ISBN 978-0-691-21246-3

Frye (Property Rights and Property Wrongs), a professor of foreign policy at Columbia University, offers a nuanced look at Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s political playbook. According to Frye, Putin is not invincible; high-level inner conflicts and dicey trade-offs between policies that reward his cronies and those that benefit the public continually threaten his hold on power. Frye compares Putin to Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, and other “personalist” autocrats who rely on vulnerable personal networks to remain in control, and draws on surveys, interviews, and research by contemporary social scientists to argue that Putin’s popularity has faltered as public enthusiasm for the 2014 annexation of Crimea has waned and falling oil prices have contributed to economic stagnation. Since mass protests in 2011 over voting fraud, Russia has become increasingly repressive—a clear sign, Frye contends, that the tools Putin uses to stay in power, including cyberwarfare, media manipulation, and the funding of illiberal movements in the West, are faltering. Whether or not Putin decides to run for reelection in 2024, Frye surmises, “Russia’s next few years will likely be rocky.” Though readers who closely follow Russian politics will find Frye’s conclusions unsurprising, his research is impressive. This timely, evidence-based account persuades. (Apr.)