Leaving Without Losing: The War on Terror after Iraq and Afghanistan

Katz (Russia and Arabia), professor of government and politics at George Mason University, assesses the future of the “War on Terror” after Iraq and Afghanistan in this timely, if speculative, analysis. Using the cold war as a template, Katz argues that withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, like the U.S. withdrawal from Indochina, “need not mean defeat.” He further speculates about the possibility of “a surprising wave of democratization” in the Greater Middle East similar to what happened in Eastern Europe following the fall of the Communist governments. However, Katz cautions that the current broader conflict “will continue for years or even decades to come.” While conceding that there “do not appear to be any easy options,” the author labors, with only partial success, to draw parallels that support a satisfactory conclusion to the “War on Terror.” In fact, even in his calculus, the potential downside of withdrawal—e.g., loss of U.S. influence in the region and chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan—appear to outweigh the upside, e.g., that repressive Islamic regimes will prove unpopular. As the U.S. searches for a way forward, Katz’s largely objective and thoughtful analysis offers much to consider. (May)