Prophecy: Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future, from Ancient Oracles to AI

Today’s algorithmically generated “predictive” decisions, from loan approvals to missile strikes, are, despite their scientific veneer, no less expressions of cultural and personal desires than the “prophecies” of earlier eras, ethicist Véliz (Privacy Is Power) argues in this captivating study. Surveying the long history of prediction, from the “oracle bones” of Shang dynasty China (1600–1046 BCE) to the writings of England’s 16th-century “astrologer-physicians, Véliz shows that “prediction cannot be disentangled from power.” In classical Greece, for instance, the priestesses of the Oracle of Delphi were known to [accept] bribes in return for delivering convenient political messages. Véliz shows how statistical prediction similarly undergirded a range of fraught political and economic developments in the 19th century, from the rise of race science to the emergence of the insurance industry. The proliferation in recent years of machine learning, large language models, and so-called artificial intelligence has turbocharged the role of prediction in culture, she notes. The rise of AI chatbots, in particular, has brought humans back full circle to ancient forms of prophecy like the Oracle of Delphi. By employing statistical models to guess the most appropriate response to a given prompt, chatbots enact the same ancient feedback loop of power and desire, hidden behind a quasi-mystical process. Véliz elucidates complex philosophical and technological concepts with ease, while covering a vast range of topics. Lively and erudite, this impresses. (Apr.)