If Russia Wins: A Scenario

Today Ukraine, tomorrow Estonia, warns Masala, a professor of international politics at Munich University, in his English-language debut, an immersive work of speculative nonfiction. A bestseller in Germany, the book envisions a near future in which Russia succeeds in holding onto Ukraine; a cash-strapped Europe abandons rearmament; and America normalizes relations with Russia while pivoting toward Asia. The result is a 2028 surprise Russian attack on Estonia, under the guise of protecting the country’s Russian-speaking citizens from discrimination. Estonia, a NATO member, then calls on that organization to defend it, leading to an international crisis. Masala’s novelistic narrative astutely depicts the ensuing diplomatic wrangling: the Baltic States, Eastern Europe, and Germany demand a decisive response, as the French, echoed by Hungary and Italy, take the lead in equivocating; a Trumpian U.S. president declares that America’s not paying for Europe’s defense; and the U.S. national security adviser is spooked by Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling. Masala’s what-if about a West that crumbles before Russian brinksmanship has the excitement of a thriller, but less convincing is his depiction of the other side: his scenario never adequately explains why Russia would nip at the NATO alliance as opposed to gobbling up another NATO outsider like Ukraine. Still, this provocative thought experiment will appeal to geopolitics wonks. (Jan.)