In 2005, when a beleaguered picture-book market had many publishers cutting their lists in half, Chip Gibson, president of Random House Books for Young Readers, took bold action, launching a new imprint devoted solely to picture books.

"There was a scratching of heads," said Gibson, when he told his colleagues about his plan. "This seems counterintuitive, but I want to increase our commitment to hardcover picture books." Undaunted, he launched Schwartz & Wade, the new imprint named for the women at its helm, Anne Schwartz and Lee Wade, and doubled the picture book output at Random House and Knopf, to nearly 50.

Only a year in, his risk has already paid off. Schwartz & Wade has outsold its budget, and was profitable in 2006. Gibson noted that this success came "without a freakish bestseller, just with solid, good, publishing." Across all three of Random House's picture book imprints (Schwartz & Wade, Random House and Knopf), Gibson says, "Initial orders are rising—we're printing longer to those orders and reprinting sooner. Additionally, a high percentage are converting into backlist and continuing to sell. We are seeing a higher rate of reprint across the board than we did five years ago."

Titles doing especially well for the publishing giant are Tad Hills's Duck and Goose, which has sold 100,000 copies; its sequel, Duck, Duck, Goose, hits the New York Times bestseller list next week. Jenny Offill and Nancy Carpenter's 17 Things I'm Not Allowed to Do Anymore has sold 10,000 copies since it went on sale in December 2006. At Knopf, Gibson points to the success of Mini Grey's Traction Man and The Adventures of the Dish and the Spoon. "Thank God for the variety and breadth of the market place," said Gibson, when asked what accounts for the picture book rebound. Although the company moves many units through the chains, it is by no means dependent on them. "We don't have to completely flip out if we don't get on the picture book wall," he said.

There were several other notable megaselling, non-celebrity picture book hits last year, including Fancy Nancy from HarperCollins (400,000 copies sold), Dooby Dooby Moo from Atheneum (350,000 copies) and Owen and Mzee from Scholastic (400,000 copies). Across the industry, publishers report improvement in the category, though some are a bit more cautious. The chains continue to be fairly selective, and savvy publishers are looking to outlets beyond the traditional venues and toward ancillary channels, such as non-bookstore retailers. Emma Dryden, v-p and associate publisher of Atheneum and McElderry, says, "The [price] clubs won't take every book, but when they do, they take them in large quantities. We've been doing more reformatting—publishing a hardcover that suits the chains and independents and then reformatting at a lower price point about two years after initial publication." In addition, publishers are looking for extra hooks—like name recognition, spectacular artwork or innovative formats.

Doug Whiteman, president of children's books at Penguin Putnam Books for Young Readers, said, "Independents and chains are both coming back, but we're still not at the level we would call strong. We haven't gotten back to mid- to late-'90s levels. We hit the nadir in the market in 2005. That started to turn around in 2006. I don't see any reason to think that is going to change in 2007."

Back in November 2005, in PW's "What Happened to Picture Books?" feature, Whiteman had pinpointed the lag to a slump in the performance of midlist titles, a category he says has somewhat bounced back. He points to a retail boost from novelty books like Fairyopolis and ThePrincessPrimer, which benefited from a trend Candlewick started with its bestselling "Ologies" titles.

As for the cause of the poor picture book performance in recent years, many observers point to the same culprit: the swell in these titles, both new and backlist, from Harry Potter to C.S. Lewis and beyond, has taken its toll on the more mature picture book category as younger readers turn to fiction, and away from picture books. Simon Boughton, publisher of Roaring Brook Press, breaks it down this way: "Because the younger kids are now reading up, the seven- and eight-year-old end of the picture book market has become the younger end of the kids' fiction market. Pre-reading kids are where picture books serve the most purpose." This is a marked change from the previous generation, where kids might read picture books into first or second grade.

Also, perception has altered the way people spend money on books, Boughton believes. "In crass commercial terms, when parents see kids reading HarryPotter, they see a lot of value. Sixteen dollars for a picture book seems a lot compared to the same for a fantasy fiction book. Picture books are only 32 pages and they are a quick read."

Ruta Drummond, picture book buyer for Borders, speaks to Boughton's theory that the average age of picture book readers may have dropped. "Our customer category [for picture books] is a read-to-me category. A picture book must have a good read-aloud quality. More and more kids are getting these books in group settings like the library or daycare. They're not necessarily sitting on a couch with Mom or Dad, so illustrations have to be seen by a group."

Drummond also discusses value in the context of the influx of new hardcover books coming out in paper over board or unjacketed formats. These titles run about $13 as compared to around $17 or more for a hardcover with jacket. She also confirms Whiteman's sense that the "Ologies" books have had a strong effect on the market. With their interactive elements and high design, Drummond says, "The disposable income previously put into standard [picture books] has switched to the Ologies price point."

Shifting Markets

Lori Benton, publisher of children's books at Harcourt, believes that the picture book category is in continuous flux. "The demands of the marketplace are shifting at a pace I have never seen in my career in children's publishing," she said. Because books are now available for sales across a much broader range, according to Benton, the bigger channels like chains and clubs are "extremely responsive to their customer's needs, which requires that publishers be equally responsive."

Benton says her division is now looking for titles with broad appeal—Frankenstein Makes a Sandwich and How I Became a Pirateare two recent successes. "Because we can't rely on any one channel anymore, we have to feel confident that we'll have success in more than one. That is a shift—it used to be you could rely on institutional sales [schools and libraries] to carry a book to profitability, even without retail."

Boughton suspects that a larger shift might be takingplace in the culture of picture books, due to a new generation of parents who came of age with animation and the Internet. "Ultimately, it is the parents choosing and purchasing the books," he said. Boughton sees the influence of "visual storytelling" overtaking the softer illustration styles of picture books past, pointing to a possible harbinger in Mo Willems's Don't Let the Pigeon Drive the Bus! (whose sequel, Don't Let the Pigeon Stay Up Late, is a current bestseller for Hyperion). "You'll see more of those kinds of books," he predicts. And he points to the success of his company's recent titles The Adventures of Polo and Bad Kitty as examples of books that have taken inspiration from comics, graphic novels and animation.

In the meantime, Boughton says he will continue to seek out titles that "make a strong argument for themselves," while watching and waiting for other signs indicating the way the wind might blow. "We have successful picture books, books that break away from the pack," he said, "but it's still challenging to make those successes. The market is less forgiving than it once was. The interesting thing is to see where the successes come from."