Although looming impacts of tariffs and declines in consumer confidence could lead to decreases in discretionary spending, books may be better positioned than other goods to benefit from these changes, a new offering from BookScan suggests.
Bookscan’s biannual Future of Books report combines point-of-sale forecasts with consumer insights to help publishers, retailers, and other publishing industry members predict future sales trends and market shifts over the next three years. The most recent report, which includes analysis by BookScan book analyst Brenna Connor, suggests that despite the economic turmoil in the economy, book sales should hold their own over the next three years.
In the report, Connor calls the U.S. book market “stable and vibrant,” noting that 2024 marked a return to growth following two years of consecutive declines, with unit gains across print, e-book, and audiobook formats. She also described the book market as a bright spot among general merchandise categories, something that Connor says is the result of consumers prioritizing their discretionary spending on books.
She expects that trend to continue to play out in the year ahead “given the macroeconomic factors at play in 2025.” “During times of economic stress, consumers are more likely to pull back spend on higher-ticket items, like technology and apparel, and favor items that they see as having a high perceived value, like books,” Connor writes.
Another factor in publishing’s favor, Connor says, is that books are one of the items consumers buy to “treat themselves” and, according to historical data, “these kinds of items do well during times of economic uncertainty.”
A third data point from the Future of Books report also supports the positive outlook for books: 50% of new book buyers report they are reading somewhat more or much more compared to the same time a year ago. This increased engagement with books, Connor concludes, “will benefit sales.”
Taking all factors into account, the latest Future of Books forecast shows a favorable three-year outlook for book sales. Adult fiction unit sales has had a good start in 2025, and BookScan forecasts it will remain the strongest segment of the market, led by sales in the romance category. “Some consumers may put off buying a high-priced item like a new patio set or the newest headphones,” Connor writes, “but they will buy the new Kristin Hannah—a more affordable luxury.”
In terms of the underperformers in 2025, kids’ fiction is forecast to have another challenging year, but has a more favorable outlook beyond 2025, the forecast. And despite overall declines, Connor predicts that fiction books for infants ages 0-3 will be one bright spot of growth this year, driven by the board book format.
