Given the big-ticket advances -- and some absent fiction brand names -- this chancy category will be in the spotlight this fall

Do not ask Rob Weisbach to comment on the reported $6 million advance he supposedly paid for this fall's Whoopi by Whoopi Goldberg. The young chief of Morrow's Rob Weisbach Books will only talk about why Whoopi is such a unique comic talent and why her worldview appeals to him and, he hopes, to a large audience. Barnes &Noble v-p of merchandising Bob Wietrak backs up this logic, telling PW he thinks the book will do well, and Margaret Maupin, buyer for Denver's Tattered Cover bookstore, has taken what in today's cautious climate is "a significant stand" on the book, which is rumored to have a 750,000 first printing

.But say goodbye to any further talk of the bucks involved. "I don't discuss money ever," Weisbach told PW, noting at the same time that most of the advances for his higher-profile books have been "erroneously reported."But Weisbach is in the hot seat this fall as publishers watch to see just how well such a reportedly high-ticket book can perform. Naysayers point to the high returns for Jay Leno's Leading with My Chin, reportedly a $4.5 million investment for HarperCollins last year. "Whoopi could be the Waterworld of celebrity books," Villard publisher David Rosenthal told PW.

In the celebrity book category, that costly-bomb analogy is particularly apt. Wietrak told PW that although there is a category of celebrity autobiography that builds by word of mouth, many are indeed "event" books, where sales happen -- or don't -- in the first few weeks. Additionally, given the dicounting done on these books in hardcover, paperback reprints of celeb titles tend to be soft. "Let's just say we're going with conservative first printings," said Avon publisher Lou Aronica, who is doing a reprint of Loni Anderson's My Life in High Heels.

While nerve-racking, it's the name of much of the bestseller game, said Warner v-p/executive editor Rick Horgan. "Everyone is looking for that blue-chip book, the one that will really move," he said. Celebrities can not only garner the publicity that unknown authors can't, but their mere presence at a book signing often can mean thousands of copies sold. Tattered Cover's Maupin saw that effect when ballplayers Cal Ripken and Brett Butler came to her store recently to promote their books, from Viking and Nelson, respectively.

"Frankly, I'm not sure how much we would have sold if they hadn't come," she said. The success of many celebrity books relies on their keepsake status, with Maupin pointing to Isabella Rossellini's recently published Some of Me (Random House) as a prime example. "It had a beautiful cover -- she was on it," Maupin said. She also figures good sales will result the "minute John Travolta holds up his book [One-Propeller One-Way Night Coach, from Warner] on Rosie O'Donnell's show."

"Celebrities can be incredible publicity machines, with built-in cross-promotion," said HarperCollins senior editor Mauro Di Preta. "If you can get everyone to cooperate and you have creative marketing, it can really be powerful."

"Making the bestseller list is all about velocity, and celebrities have tremendous velocity," said Horgan, who hopes that a book he edited, Olympian Jackie Joyner-Kersee's A Kind of Grace, leaps onto the lists this fall. He believes celebrity books are second only to commercial thrillers in bankable potential, and it's a fair assumption: of PW's top 15 nonfiction bestsellers last year, nine were celebrity oriented: Make the Connection by Oprah Winfrey and Bob Green (Hyperion); Bad as I Wanna Be by Dennis Rodman (Delacorte); In Contempt by Christopher Darden (ReganBooks); A Reporter's Life by Walter Cronkite; My Sergei by Ekaterina Gordeeva (Warner); Gift and Mystery by Pope John Paul II (Doubleday); I'm Not Really Here by Tim Allen (Hyperion); Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot and Other Observations by Al Franken (Delacorte); and My Story by the Duchess of York (S&S).

Attracting consumers who may not be regular readers, the celebrity book, combined with the lifestyle category, can also fit particularly well into the expanding nontraditional bookstore market. Tom Klusaritz, v-p and publisher of GT Publishing, told PW that he remembers a chain buyer being skeptical of his 500,000 first printing on Richard Simmons's Farewell to Fat last year, but he went on to sell more than 600,000 copies of the book in bookstores and through such venues as price clubs and QVC. Sales were also fueled by targeted mailings to those who purchased other Simmons merchandise (including his videos, produced by GT's video division). GT is following up that launch with another Richard Simmons cookbook, Sweetie Pie; Naomi Judd's Naomi's Home Companion; and Charlton Heston Presents the Bible this fall.

And while Sandra Dear, general merchandising manager for Advanced Marketing Services, the San Diego, Calif.-based book supplier to the price club market, is skeptical about many celebrity books, she did tell PW that the country-meets-Christmas Box concept of LeAnn Rimes's upcoming Holiday in Your Heart (Doubleday) makes it a likely success in her stores this Christmas.

Thus, despite what Horgan calls the "ratio of price and affordability" to acquire them, celebrity autobiographies can also make publishers -- and booksellers -- money. Although he has no celebrity autobiographies on his fall list, and he acknowledged that the bidding has gotten too high lately, Bantam publisher Irwyn Applebaum believes it's "self-destructive snobbery" to look down on them. "Everyone is happy when a book sells and when a non-regular reader comes into the bookstore," he said.

Even Weisbach drops his defensive stance when noting that two books he edited while at Bantam, Paul Reiser's Couplehood and Jerry Seinfeld's Seinlanguage, each sold more than one million copies in hardcover. "You do the math," he said, pointing out the profitability of even these significant investments. And although such instances are rare, publishers can also see profits in holding world rights to a celebrity book, a profit center Ballantine editor-in-chief Judith Curr expects to develop for an upcoming Jackie Chan autobiography.

Risky Fall Season

Thus, publishers' dance with celebrities g s on. "There have been enough successes that everyone thinks they're right this time," said Avon publisher Lou Aronica. This fall will see what happens to Aronica's own reportedly big investment in Walk This Way, a much-delayed autobiography by the rock group Aerosmith (originally signed by Little, Brown). "I'm betting on rock `n' roll," he said. "It's my interest and I think it's the interest of baby boomers with disposable incomes." Rock fans will also have Van Halen former lead singer David Lee Roth's Crazy from the Heart (Hyperion) as well as Joni Mitchell: Lyrics &P ms.

Other celebrity investments include: $3 million advances reportedly paid for books by TV comedian Drew Carey (Dirty Jokes and Beer, Hyperion) and O.J. former girlfriend Paula Barbieri (The Other Woman, Little, Brown), as well as substantial six- or seven-figure advances to sports stars Marcus Allen (Marcus, SMP) and Brett Favre (Favre, Doubleday); comedian Chris Rock (Rock This!, Hyperion); O.J connections Denise Brown (Nicole's Story, ReganBooks) and Terri Baker (I'm Not Dancing Anymore, Kensington); singers LeAnn Rimes (Holiday in your Heart, Doubleday), Gladys Knight (Between Each Line of Pain and Glory, Hyperion) and Lorrie Morgan (Forever Yours, Faithfully, Ballantine); former Clint Eastwood flame Sondra Locke (The Good, the Bad, &the Very Ugly, Morrow); MTV "it" girl, Jenny McCarthy (Jenny McCarthy's Diary, ReganBooks); and talk-show host Jenny Jones (Jenny Jones: My Story, Andrews McMeel Publishing).

It's a celeb lineup that AMS's Dear sees as being thrown into particularly high relief this year. "The only real sure things for us are the big fiction titles from name authors, and there aren't as many this season; there's no Crichton, no Grafton, no Grisham, and the trade paperback of King can't compare to that dual hardcover publication last year," she said. "These celebrities are more visible now with some of these other authors gone." But celebrity books in general, said Dear, "are definitely a risk."

Making It Shtick

Publishers try to do what they can to minimize the risk. When considering acquiring celebrity autobiographies, for example, Warner's Horgan said he tends to gravitate toward TV performers: "They have a more reliable platform; they're on air every week, they have a built-in audience."

Certainly the Seinfeld and Reiser books benefited from being available just as their now-popular sitcoms were taking off, and Hyperion hopes to continue that trend with Drew Carey's Dirty Jokes and Beer this fall. While Tattered Cover's Maupin isn't a fan of Carey's TV show, she d s acknowledge the book's potential audience. "Maybe all the nerds of the world will buy it," she joked. AMS's Dear noted that the Carey book is "being positioned like those earlier successes, but we'll wait and see."

Carey's book pretty much transfers his shtick onto the page -- a smart move, according to Maureen Golden, v-p, general merchandise manager at Barnes &Noble. "The celebrity book is an area we've seen strengths and weaknesses in. The problem here is if [celebrities] go out of their TV character, as did Kelsey Grammer and Brett Butler, the book d sn't sell," she said. "People fall in love with the character; that's who they want to read about"

But Di Preta noted that Leno's book actually was just a comic compendium; though the packaging of the book and possibly its title, too, gave the impression that it was a straight autobiography. Bantam's Applebaum said that Sinbad's Guide to Life, a reportedly seven-figure book published in May, isn't performing as well as hoped. "It was frustrating because we thought it was a hysterical book," he said. One reason for the book's sluggish sales may be that Sinbad d s not have a regular TV series, but it also fell into a trap common for this new breed of celebrity autobiography: "There was this perception that it wasn't a substantial book," said Golden.

Getting a Real Story

To combat such perceptions, editors "need to be actively involved in shaping the book," said Crown executive editor Sue Carswell. "The editor needs to build trust, collaborate -- and work with the celebrity and the celebrity's co-writer." Before she left Pocket, Carswell matched Susan Schindehette, a writer from her former workplace, People magazine, with America's Most Wanted host John Walsh for the Pocket fall autobiography Tears of Rage, which has the advantage of a high-profile personality. It's also the first time Walsh has told the personal story of the tragic loss of his son Adam, which led Walsh to embark on his current crime-fighting crusade.

Most editors try to link celebs with heavyweight co-authors. "With `personality' books, the book has to be twice as good as you think it should be," said Ballantine's Curr, who has tapped experienced collaborator George Vecsey to work on Lorrie Morgan's autobiography and, in an interesting pairing, matched Final Rounds author James Dodson to work on golf great Arnold Palmer's autobiography, coming next year.

"You can slap a name on a book and it will sell maybe 25% of the time, but mostly you need to have a good book," said ReganBooks publisher Judith Regan. She noted that she "had a lot of fights with Chris [Darden]" to make sure his book transcended being just an O.J. book. For Nicole's Story by Denise Brown, Regan has tapped Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Sheryl James as co-writer. "Everyone is saying, `Too late,' but it's going to be a wonderful story," she said.

Interestingly, AMS's Dear believes that the strongest fall entry in the O.J. genre is a work of fiction, Dominick Dunne's Another City, Not My Own (Crown). Dunne is a celebrity in his own right, both because of his identification with the case and because of the strong following for his past novels. As for contenders Brown, Barbieri and Baker, she's not willing to make predictions: "I always think there's enough of these O.J. books, but some hit the list every season."

Tapping a Loyal Fan Base

But perhaps the most surefire celebrity stories are the uplifting inspirational ones by stars with hardcore fans. Avon's Aronica describes Putnam's success with Patti LaBelle's Don't Block the Blessings as a smart example of assessing a star's appeal. "Patti Labelle is a great example of someone with a beloved audience. Her record sales have been higher in the past, but you will see tremendous turnout for her concerts," said Aronica, who noted that fan loyalty also helped swell sales for B.B. King's autobiography, Blues All Around Me, published by Avon last year. AMS's Dear also noted that she was a bit surprised at how well the Billy Graham autobiography Just as I Am (Harper San Francisco/Zondervan) has done, and HSF is no doubt hoping that Cash, the autobiography of country music star Johnny Cash, will capture some of that market.

This fall, Putnam is offering Della Reese's autobiography, Angels Along the Way, which Dear believes will be greatly boosted by the popularity of her TV show, Touched by an Angel. Other books in this vein include autobiographies from singer Gladys Knight (Hyperion), who will reveal her gambling addiction and describe the painful recent breakup of her marriage to motivational speaker Les Brown; and disco diva Gloria Gaynor (SMP), who will discuss her religious reawakening. Curr described Lorrie Morgan's Forever Yours, Faithfully as being inspirational on many levels -- Morgan lost her first love and had to struggle as a single mother -- as well as a great example of a celebrity's promotional clout. "She's on a 60-city tour, and she's already talking about the book," said Curr. "Her finale is the song "Forever Yours, Faithfully," and after she performs it, balloons with the name of the book on them come floating down. It's pretty amazing."

Problems, Problems

Although the industry seems obsessed with direct relationships with celebrities, AMS's Dear puts Kitty Kelley's The Royals (Warner), Seymour Hersh's The Dark Side of Camelot (Little, Brown), Barry Miles's Paul McCartney (Holt), and Dominick Dunne's Another City, Not My Own (Crown) as top contenders for celebrity-oriented bestsellerdom this fall.

Indeed, if most of the autobiographies flop this season, it will add even more fuel to mutterings that it's time for a correction in the celebrity-autobiography advance market.

"Yes, you can buy your way onto the bestseller list, but the cost of buying your way on can dig your hole even deeper," said Villard publisher David Rosenthal. Critics cite as an example the $4.5 million advance for Marcia Clark's Without a Doubt, which made the bestseller list but reportedly earned back, at best, half of its advance.

Even celebrity book advocate Rick Horgan noted that ego, rather than real sense, plays a part in some editors' celebrity book acquisitions: "I do think that every editor, if pressed, can construct a logical rationale for paying the numbers he or she pays for these things, but the reality is, we're as much caught up in celebrity worship as the general public. I've actually had agents say to me, 'Think about it. If you buy this person's book, your name will be alongside his (or hers) when the project gets ink.' I'd like to think I'm beyond that, but the reality is, many editors aren't."

Editors are particularly fond of the ink attached to celeb deals when starting a new job or new publishing division. One of Harold Evans's first acquisitions when he started at Random House, for example, was the seven-figure advance paid for the Marlon Brando autobiography. Rob Weisbach paid a reported $5.6 million for Reiser's second book, Babyhood, out next month, not to mention the high-ticket Whoopi. Broadway Books started off with high price tags for Cindy Crawford, Ed Rollins and Rick Pitino. "I guess startups see the advance as part of the cost of that publicity," said HarperCollins's Di Preta. "But some of these advances raise the bar for what other celebrities will want."

Even when publishers commit to a big advance, they often have to wait too long for a book. "Even the best-intentioned celebrity is torn in many directions," said Bantam's Irwyn Applebaum. Rick Horgan had to delay former Baywatch star Pamela Anderson Lee's book, Pam-de-monium, originally scheduled for this fall, in part because of Anderson's legal battles, although he joked that it turned out to be a good thing, since she would have been about eight months pregnant during the book tour. In addition to Oprah Winfrey's much-publicized delay of her autobiography, another talk show queen, Rosie O'Donnell, has committed to do her autobiography for Warner, but there's no word on when yet. (Instead, O'Donnell created the Kidz Are Punny collection, which has been an interim hit for Warner). Recently, Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy decided to back out of a reported seven-figure bidding for her autobiography, in part because of time constraints.

Another uncertain market is up-and-coming and alternative celebrities, although publishers are testing such projects as book by rappers Chuck D (Dell) and LL Cool J (SMP), and performance artist/actor John Leguizamo (Riverhead). "There are some artists developing, but right now the audience is responding with a real disposability mindset," said Aronica, specifically referring to the alternative rock scene.

And worst of all, that relentless interest in celebrities may lead to overexposure and -- horrors -- do nothing to sell the book. "There's such a ravenous media crop with a scoop mentality about celebrities and celebrity books," said BDD publicity chief Stuart Applebaum. "But there's a great paradox: sometimes the more news coverage some of these books generate, the less their sales."

Still, even with these pressures, publishers find it hard to resist chasing celebrity book success. At press time, Warner is the reported winner of a Goldie Hawn book, for a rumored $3 million advance. And asked why Bantam decided to follow up Lee Iacocca's Iacocca with his successful but certainly not as blockbuster second book, Stuart Applebaum brings up what in this category is the inevitable movie comparison. "It would," he said, "be like telling Universal not to do a sequel to Jurassic Park."