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Whither Ho Ho? Is the Xmas Season Fading for Books?
John Mutter -- 11/3/97
Articles in both the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times last week suggested that, as the Times put it, "Christmas is slowly shedding its role as the annual rescuer of American retailers."
In fact, because of changes in consumer-spending habits-and retailers who haven't adapted to the changes-the Christmas season could be taking on the role of annual profit spoilsport. According to Commerce Department figures, books as a category suffered the biggest drop in Christmas sales during the past eight years: November and December sales of books as a percentage of annual book sales fell 2.7%, to 20.79% from 23.49%, between 1988 and 1996. In other words, while nearly one in four books sold in 1988 was sold during the holiday season, closer to one in five of all books sold in 1996 was sold at the end of the year. (This has all occurred at a time when, according to some in the industry, Christmas has become even more important to children's publishers, meaning that sales of non-children's books may well have declined more than the average 2.7% noted above.)

More bad tidings from the Journal and Times: because of the economy's health over the past six years, luxury goods, which are an indicator of the sales of expensive hardcovers and coffee-table books, have been a stellar Christmas category. After the recent stock market turmoil, however, luxury-goods buyers will likely be more hesitant about buying than at any time since 1991.

Another ominous trend, retail overbuilding, applies particularly to the book world. Since 1986, the amount of retail space per American has jumped 30.5%. During the Christmas season, as a result, more outlets are fighting for proportionally fewer dollars.

How are retailers reacting? According to the papers, many companies are putting more promotional energy and money into other holidays-from Mother's and Father's Day to Valentine's Day. (At Target, for example, Halloween is "now a very major sales event," according to one company executive.) Still, as the Journal points out, some retailers continue to buy for the Christmas season as though little has changed in the past decade. This leads inevitably to disappointments-and in the book business, to significant returns. As a result, the normally profitable Christmas season has become less of a money-maker.

The lesson for booksellers and the book industry isn't, of course, to give up on the Christmas season. Instead, Christmas should be seen as a key holiday, but only one of many-and not a cure-all for an otherwise limp year.
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