The combination of a not-so-robust economy (see By the Numbers) and mixed reports from corporate booksellers—Borders withdrawing its forecasts for the fourth quarter and Amazon's "cautiously optimistic" view for the period—suggests that this holiday season could be a tough one for publishing. But interviews with two dozen independent booksellers offer a more hopeful picture. Indies give two reasons for expectations of a solid fourth quarter: holiday timing and in-stock product.
While some years Christmas and Hanukkah are separated by almost a month, this year the two holidays are just a day apart, which makes the buying season more focused. Secondly, rather than looking forward to hot titles being released in November and December, booksellers are excited about titles already on their shelves. And the fact that there is no huge book is actually good news for indies.
"I've learned in this business that you can't rely on major books to pay your bills," said Karen Wilson, Page & Palette in Fairhope, Ala. "The major books for us are the ones we decide to get behind." Stormy Le Kennedy, owner of Claflin Books and Copies in Claflin, Kans., agreed: "We usually don't have one big book. Our customers can be swayed by handselling."
A number of booksellers agreed with That Bookstore in Blytheville (Ark.) owner Mary Gay Shipley: "We'd rather have a season in which there are no national big books so we can make our own big books. In general, we don't get many sales from those big national books that people can buy at Wal-Mart."
In addition to timing and selection, several booksellers said better logistics should contribute to better December sales. "The problem last year was that just-in-time ordering didn't work because we didn't get the books on time," said Dan Chartrand, co-owner of Water Street Bookstore in Exeter, N.H. "In terms of books this year, it's going to be a great season." (Next week PW will take a look at books indies are touting.)
Kathy Westover, president of the Mountains and Plains Booksellers Association, believes some of the problems faced last holiday season have been fixed. "Last Christmas, our biggest problem was shipping," she said, something she doesn't expect to occur this year.
The gloomiest outlook came from Tom Campbell, owner of Regulator Bookshop in Durham, N.C. Campbell said last year's flat Christmas sales had more to do with industry problems than the mix of books, and conditions have not changed much over the last year. His biggest complaint is about the growing competition between bookstores and publishers for sales. Publishers, he said, "seem more intent on competing with us. Not only do bookstores have to fight the super-discounts given to mass merchandisers but we have to battle publishers directly for sales to schools, businesses, churches, associations and so forth. This makes no sense. Direct and special sales units should be confined to marketing to these customers, but fulfillment should be handled by nearby bookstores."
