Slower Growth Forecast for 2008

Book sales are projected to increase 3.2% in 2008, to $41.22 billion, according to the latest forecast developed by the Book Industry Study Group and released over the weekend at BookExpo America. The projected increase will be slower than the 4.9% gain reported in 2007, when every segment but mass market paperbacks posted a sales increase.

Al Greco, a principal in the Institute for Publishing Research, which created the forecast, said the projections take into account the slowing national economy, and while he was confident the numbers for 2008 will hold up, he said projections for 2009, especially in the elhi segment, might need to be lowered if state tax receipts continue to weaken. Greco's colleague Bob Wharton said that while books have historically proven to be more recession-proof than big-ticket items, buying trade books is a discretionary purchase. “If consumers are looking for items that can be cut, books are one place that can be cut,” Wharton said. The most recession-resistant book segments tend to be standardized tests and professional, Greco added, noting that the 9.6% sales projection for standardized tests is the highest among all segments, while the professional category's 4.0% is the third highest.

Among trade categories, sales in the juvenile hardcover segment are projected to decline 1.9%, with the drop due to the strong performance of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, which resulted in a record year for the segment in 2007. Sales gains in both the adult hardcover and trade paperback segments are projected to be slightly lower than in 2007, and while sales in the mass market category are expected to fall again in 2008, the decline is estimated to be less than the 3.0% drop last year.

Unit sales, which rose 0.4% in trade in 2007 thanks in large part to the 10.5% gain in juvenile hardcover, are projected to decline 1.6% this year, with every trade category experiencing unit declines. “Unit sales are unsettling,” noted Greco. Trade units are expected to decline every year through 2011 and be flat in 2012. Still, total trade sales, driven by price increases, are expected to increase by just over 2% annually through 2012, resulting in a 1.4% compound annual growth rate between 2009 and 2012, the same rate that is estimated for the 2006—2009 period. Historically, Greco noted, “trade sales have been remarkably consistent.”

The BISG numbers don't break out digital sales, and spoken-word audio sales are rolled up into different print segments. Greco said it's possible sales of digital products could affect print sales in the professional and college segments soon, but it would still be some time before they had a material impact on sales of print editions of trade titles.