Last week, comics publisher Fantagraphics announced on social media that a ship carrying copies of Bitchy! The Exasperating Existence of Midge McCracken, a new anthology by cartoonist Roberta Gregory, had been struck by a missile in the Persian Gulf. The ship and crew evidently reached safe harbor, but the status of the freight remained unknown. The publisher has opted to push the book's launch to summer. Insurance for the shipment, Fantagraphics noted, does not cover acts of war.
The incident is just one small example of the broader impact of the ongoing war with Iran on the book business. Now, as the conflict enters its fourth week, fuel surcharges on ocean and air freight have been climbing rapidly, and several major book fairs across the Middle East have been postponed or thrown into uncertainty.
"It's February and March, which is typically new contract season for big freight buyers with the ocean carriers," said Jack Stevens, president of Woodland Global USA, a subsidiary of the U.K.-headquartered Woodland Group, which handles imports and exports for several major publishers. "They are already tearing those contracts up. Primary reason being the fuel costs, and secondary reason being reallocation of assets, including ocean vessels and containers, away from the Middle East into other areas."
Fuel surcharges are hitting both sides of the Atlantic, though the ranges vary widely. Woodland Group's U.K. team announced a flat 12% fuel surcharge on domestic and European shipments, while in the U.S., costs are less predictable, according to Stevens. "We're seeing anything between 5% and 40%," Stevens said, largely depending on where a shipment is originating from—a port or warehouse—and the final destination of the shipment.
Some of the price increases have yet to land and will take weeks to fully filter through. Under Federal Maritime Commission regulations, ocean carriers must provide 30 days' notice before applying new surcharges, and Stevens said some have already issued advance notice that fuel surcharges will take effect in mid-April.
Furthermore, standard adjustment factors built into existing contracts—mechanisms tied to fuel indexes that normally adjust monthly or quarterly—also lag behind sudden price shocks. "You might get away with it for a couple of weeks," Stevens said. "All it means is we'll just see it drag on into the future."
Air freight is also rising in price. Stevens said that "more publishers use air freight than the industry tends to acknowledge," and carriers rerouting around dangerous airspace over the Middle East are now flying longer routes and burning more jet fuel, which is itself rising in price. Every extra pound of fuel loaded onto a plane means a pound less of cargo capacity on the same flight.
"Expenses are up, and they're generating less revenue from their cargo customers," Stevens said. "It's a real squeeze from both directions."
The insurance situation adds another layer of uncertainty. Insurers have moved to cancel war risk coverage for vessels sailing to, from, or via the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Aden, and surrounding waters, effective immediately. The Fantagraphics situation is a case in point. Stevens said he is monitoring flight routing data and awaiting clarification on exactly how coverage applies to air cargo transiting or avoiding conflict zones.
"It's kind of the joke, right?" he said. "The one time that you need insurance coverage in case of a war, it gets canceled because of a war."
Beyond the disruptions in logistics, several major MENA region book fairs have been postponed, while others remain uncertain. The 30th Muscat International Book Fair, scheduled for March 26–April 5, has been postponed with no new dates announced. The 35th Abu Dhabi International Book Fair, originally set for April 11–20, has also been postponed, with a new date to be determined. The Erbil International Book Fair in Iraq is scheduled for April 8–18. The Doha International Book Fair (May 14–23), the Sharjah Children's Reading Festival (April 22–May 3), and the Sharjah Booksellers Conference (May 2–3) remain on schedule.
The disruptions come during a critical window, with publishers ordering print runs in Asia and locking in shipping arrangements that will determine whether books reach U.S. warehouses in time for fall and holiday sales. Stevens flagged a further risk for the future: Should tensions over Taiwan escalate, a significant portion of the trans-Pacific supply chain could also be affected, not to mention numerous book fairs and events coming up in the region. For publishers already navigating this crisis, it is a contingency few relish contemplating.
