Market trends and strategies were the focus of a February 26 talk at the American Booksellers Association's Winter Institute 2026, presented by Circana BookScan industry analyst Brenna Connor. Categorizing books among people's "passion purchases," Connor said that "books remain one of the discretionary bright spots" at a time when consumer confidence is slipping.

Connor, who specializes in the U.S. book market, said the company had identified a “clear pattern” of people “pulling back from discretionary purchases” in order to buy food and necessary household goods in 2025. Yet, despite unemployment and higher prices on essentials “putting a squeeze on consumers,” Connor said, book sales are stable and have "settled into a new, higher baseline.”

Circana BookScan, which tracks $3.4 trillion in retail channels, found adult fiction rose 1% overall in 2025, and while that modest growth might not sound like much, "volume compared to 2020 is up nearly 50%, and that’s a really remarkable lift for a mature category.”

Dark romance and other escapist fiction contributed to fiction’s stability. “What we read says a lot about what we feel,” Connor said, and books with emotional heft led the field.

Unsurprisingly, dystopias have done well too; 1984 author George Orwell doubled in popularity and charted among 2025’s top 20 fiction creators, according to Circana BookScan. In the year ahead, Connor forecasts that fiction audiences will seek out "more genre mashups," supplement their romantasy stacks with sci-fi, and sate their appetites for manga with an even greater variety of graphic novels.

If fiction readers savored heart-rending fare in 2025, Connor said, nonfiction emphasized the opposite, with “cozy crafting and comfort cooking,” lifestyle books for positive mental health, and “trusted sources” such as science writer Mary Roach or the cookbook specialists at America's Test Kitchen leading the category.

Religion and spirituality were also “a standout growth area in 2025,” Connor said, with Bibles hitting a 21-year high at 19 million unit sold, representing “double-digit growth” year over year. This increase comes at the same time Pew Research Center “is showing a flattening Christian affiliation in the U.S.,” Connor said, so it’s possible “those who are Christian are leaning into it more,” as sources of hope and community.

Circana BookScan also found that books for young readers rebounded last year, after a decline that began in 2022. “The biggest story is the return to growth for the children’s market,” Connor said, attributing much of the momentum to customers' interest in children’s activity books centered on coloring, puzzles, stickers, and licensed content.

Activities aren't necessarily narratives, though. When children’s caregivers purchase "'doing' formats," Connor said, that “potentially signals a shift away from reading in favor of active engagement.” On the plus side, analog games and interactive print media could reduce kids' screen time. On the negative side, reading comprehension, reading stamina, and literacy could suffer, and children continue to benefit from sustained reading at home.

Connor concluded with optimism for bookstores, noting strong evidence that consumers demonstrated a “high intent to shop at local indies.” In 2025, the indie bookstore market “outperformed the total market, which is flat,” she said.

Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, Connor recommended that booksellers "consider building ‘analog living’ sections in your stores,” because people are seeking simple pleasures. Those who want to replace doomscrolling with wholesome pursuits can begin by visiting third spaces such as their local indies.

“What you all offer as independent bookstores cannot be replicated by an algorithm or a warehouse,” Connor reassured the audience, to applause. “This is your competitive advantage and the data is proving it out.”

This article has been updated.